Nightslayer Alliance

Median 3-day move

Observed short-term repricing across the latest item feature set.

Median price volatility

Higher values mean less certainty and more need to check repeat snapshots.

Confidence posture

Conclusions distinguish observed data, inference, speculation, and scored prior outcomes.

Yesterday

Not enough data for this section yet.

Last 7 Days

Not enough data for this section yet.

Hidden Opportunities

• Bracing Earthstorm DiamondStrong Buy | profit 12g 27s | confidence Low 32%
• Gezzarak's ClawsStrong Buy | profit 10g 76s | confidence High 77%
• Ethereum Stasis Chamber KeyStrong Buy | profit 7g 28s | confidence Low 39%
• Frozen RuneStrong Buy | profit 6g 54s | confidence Low 49%
• Akkarai's TalonsStrong Buy | profit 6g 21s | confidence Low 49%
• Imbued Netherweave RobeStrong Buy | profit 5g 73s | confidence Low 31%
• Thorium Shield SpikeStrong Buy | profit 4g 21s | confidence Medium 55%
• SpellclothStrong Buy | profit 4g 15s | confidence Low 33%

Supply Shifts

Not enough data for this section yet.

Unusual Activity

• Wastewander Water Pouchprice 700g 1s | move +2833948.6% | sold/day 53.3
• Scroll of Stamina IIprice 400g 99s | move +132857.1% | sold/day 24.2
• Roasted Quailprice 34g 99s | move +112079.2% | sold/day 14.8
• Razor Arrowprice 88s 9c | move +73308.3% | sold/day 1,178.8
• Accurate Slugsprice 88s 13c | move +51741.2% | sold/day 169.4
• Solid Shotprice 88s 27c | move +11828.4% | sold/day 66.9
• Raw Rockscale Codprice 1s 75c | move +8650.0% | sold/day 146.8
• Runecloth Bandageprice 3g 87s | move +8090.1% | sold/day 24.2

Shortage Watch

• Crafted Heavy Shotsupply 0 | sold/day 864.0 | change -
• Feathered Arrowsupply 0 | sold/day 164.0 | change -
• Bloodthistlesupply 0 | sold/day 146.7 | change -
• Lynx Meatsupply 0 | sold/day 137.3 | change -
• Bristle Whisker Catfishsupply 0 | sold/day 103.9 | change -
• Mithril Head Troutsupply 0 | sold/day 40.0 | change -
• Exploding Shotsupply 0 | sold/day 27.3 | change -
• Recipe: Gingerbread Cookiesupply 0 | sold/day 25.4 | change -

What The AI Learned

• This analysis stores its market calls and checks them against later snapshots, so future confidence can be adjusted by observed signal reliability. Reports are published transparently so users can evaluate the reasoning and outcomes over time.
• The feedback loop has evaluated 16 previous market calls for this realm/faction; observed hit rate is 81%.
• Large short-term movers are being treated as investigation targets first, not automatic buys, because Phase 2 launch activity can include both real demand and stockpiler unloading.
• Opportunity scoring is most reliable when high profit is supported by sold/day and enough auctions to avoid one-listing bait.
• High-value, high-volume staple markets are tracked even when they are not discounted, because steady sold/day can matter as much as a one-off bargain.
• The model lowers confidence where stack-level behavior, cancellations, relists, or unknown external events could explain the observed move.

Prediction Feedback

16 previous calls scored. Overall observed hit rate: 81%.

• Anomaly16 scored | hit rate 81%
• Consumables7 category calls scored | hit rate 100%
• Crafted items4 category calls scored | hit rate 100%
• Leather2 category calls scored | hit rate 0%
• Meat2 category calls scored | hit rate 50%
• Other1 category calls scored | hit rate 100%

Known Limits

• Data is regional-demand informed and auction-house snapshot based; it is not perfect individual realm/player truth.
• The system cannot identify individual sellers or buyers.
• The system cannot see stack sizes, cancellations, relisting behaviour, expired auctions, or player-submitted reports.
• External in-game event visibility is incomplete, so some market movement may be caused by unknown factors.
• Confidence is reduced when a market has thin history, low sold/day, low auction count, or extreme one-listing price moves.
• Very low-price items below 10c are ignored unless sold/day is high enough to show real bulk demand.